Inflasi Indonesia

Senin, 01/11/2010 11:22 WIB
BPS: Beras dan Emas Perhiasan Dorong Inflasi Oktober 0,06%
Ramdhania El Hida - detikFinance 

Jakarta - Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi bulan Oktober 2010 mencapai 0,06%. Sehingga inflasi tahun kalender Januari-Oktober 2010 mencapai 5,35%, sementara inflasi year on year 5,67%.

"Kenapa ada inflasi tipis 0,06% di Oktober, karena kenaikan harga beras sebagai pemegang kontribusi terbesar, harganya naik tipis 0,74%. Dan menyumbang inflasi 0,04%," jelas Kepala BPS Rusman Heriawan dalam jumpa pers di kantornya, Jalan DR Soetomo, Jakarta, Senin (1/11/2010).

Penyumbang inflasi kedua adalah harga emas perhiasan yang mulai melonjak saat lebaran dan pasca lebaran. "Harga emas dunia juga mengalami kenaikan 0,47%, sumbangannya ke inflasi adalah 0,13%. Kemudian harga bawang merah juga naik 0,26%, dan menyumbangkan inflasi 0,1%," jelas Rusman.

Demikian juga harga gula pasir yang naik di Oktober, kemudian upah buruh bangunan, sewa rumah, dan upah pembantu rumah tangga ikut menyumbang inflasi di Oktober.

"Sementara yang menyumbang deflasi di Oktober adalah dari daging ayam ras yang menyumbang deflasi 0,1%. Lalu cabai merah menyumbang deflasi 0,07%, ikan segar menyumbang deflasi 0,07%, dan angkutan antar kota menyumbang deflasi 0,05%," imbuh Rusman.

Purchasing Manager Index

Dear All,

Kemarin Purchasing Manager Index di Amerika Serikat menunjukkan perbaikan 0,4%.

Apakah Purchasing Manager Index ? 

kita bahas sedikit di sini : 

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator for economic activity. Roughly speaking it reflects the percentage of purchasing managers in a certain economic sector that reported better business conditions than in the previous month.

The Institute for Supply Management releases the PMI on the first business day of each month. 

A PMI over 50 indicates that the economy is expanding while anything below 50 suggests that the economy is contracting.

Composition of the PMI

The original PMI has been issued since 1948 by the Institute for Supply Management in Tempe, Arizona. The data for the index is collected through a survey of 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on five different fields, namely, production level, new orders from customers, speed of supplier deliveries, inventories and employment level. Respondents can report either better, same or worse conditions than previous months.

For all these fields the percentage of respondents that reported better conditions than the previous months is calculated. The five percentages are multiplied by a weighing factor (the factors adding to 1) and are added.

Currently, PMI’s for other economic sectors and different geographical zones are issued by different organizations.

Uses of the PMI

The PMI report is an extremely important indicator for the financial markets as it is considered the best indicator of factory production. The index is popular for detecting inflationary pressure as well as manufacturing economic activity, both of which investors pay close attention to. The PMI is not as strong as the CPI in detecting inflation, but because the data is released one day after the month it is very timely.

Should the PMI report an unexpected change, it is usually followed by a quick reaction in stocks. One especially key area of the report is growth in new orders, which predicts manufacturing activity in future months.  --- (WIKI)

The Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) merupakan indikator untuk kegiatan ekonomi. Secara kasar mencerminkan persentase manajer pembelian di sektor ekonomi tertentu yang melaporkan kondisi bisnis lebih baik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.Institute for Supply Management rilis PMI pada hari kerja pertama setiap bulan.Pembacaan saat ditemukan di bawah "Laporan ISM On Bisnis" di halaman rumah ISM, atau langsung di halaman ini.Sebuah PMI lebih dari 50 menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi sedang berkembang, sementara sesuatu di bawah 50 menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi adalah kontraktor.

Komposisi PMIPMI asli telah diterbitkan sejak tahun 1948 oleh Institute for Supply Management di Tempe, Arizona. Data untuk indeks dikumpulkan melalui survei terhadap 400 manajer pembelian di sektor manufaktur pada lima bidang yang berbeda, yaitu, tingkat produksi, pesanan baru dari pelanggan, kecepatan pengiriman pemasok, persediaan dan tingkat kerja. Responden bisa melaporkan kondisi baik yang lebih baik, sama atau lebih buruk dari bulan sebelumnya.Untuk semua bidang ini persentase responden yang melaporkan kondisi yang lebih baik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya dihitung. Kelima persentase dikalikan dengan faktor berat (faktor menambah 1) dan ditambahkan.Saat ini, PMI untuk sektor-sektor ekonomi lainnya dan zona geografis yang berbeda dikeluarkan oleh organisasi yang berbeda.[Sunting] Penggunaan PMI
Laporan PMI merupakan indikator sangat penting bagi pasar keuangan karena dianggap indikator terbaik dari produksi pabrik. Indeks ini populer untuk mendeteksi tekanan inflasi serta manufaktur kegiatan ekonomi, baik yang investor memperhatikan. PMI ini tidak sekuat CPI dalam mendeteksi inflasi, tetapi karena data yang dirilis satu hari setelah bulan sangat tepat waktu.Jika PMI laporan perubahan yang tak terduga, biasanya diikuti dengan reaksi cepat di saham. Salah satu bidang khususnya kunci dari laporan ini adalah pertumbuhan pesanan baru, yang memprediksi aktivitas manufaktur di bulan mendatang.

Semoga Berguna

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Teman-Teman Investor,

Kemarin di Media beredar berita tentang US Consumer Confidence Index yang turun lagi di bulan September 2010 setelah mengalami pernbaikan di Bulan Agustus 2010

Nilai indexnya sekarang berada di level 48,5 setelah turun dari level 53,2 di bulan Agustus 2010.

Apakah Consumer Confidence Index ? Siapa penerbitnya dan apa dampaknya ?
Kita coba bahas sedikit disini.

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Country by country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends. (wiki)




Consumer Confidence Index adalah indikator yang didesain untuk mengukur kepercayaan konsumer yang menggambarkan tingkat optimisme pada keadaan ekonomi tertentu dengan membaca aktivitas pengeluaran dan tabungan di sisi konsumen.
CCI tidak diukur secara global, hanya di level negara saja.
Dengan demikian CCI menjadi salah satu indikator untuk trend ekonomi global.

 In the United States consumer confidence is issued monthly by The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, and is based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of consumption component level of the gross domestic product. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock market prices.


Di Amerika Serikat, CCI diterbitkan oleh suatu lembaga bernama The Conference Board, salah satu organisasi yang bergerak dalam bidang riset ekonomi. 


CCI ini menggambarkan tingkat kepercayaan konsumer dengan membaca komponen konsumsi dari GDP.
Hal ini biasanya digunakan oleh the Fed untuk menentukan Suku Bunga Fed dan juga dapat mempengaruhi bursa saham dan kenaikan dan penurunan suatu mata uang.




Semoga membantu 

Financial Regulation Reform Bill

Dengan adanya kasus Goldman Sach yang dituduh menyebabkan krisis tahun 2008 - 2009, maka Presiden AS Barrack Obama mengusulkan regulasi baru yang mengatur transaksi finansial di bank dan lembaga keuangan yang lain.

Hari Kamis tanggal 1 Juli 2010, Senat Amerika Serikat menyetujui rancangan Undang-Undang tersebut yang bernama US Financial Regulation Reform Bill.

Dibawah ini adalah ringkasan isi dari Undang-Undang Regulasi Finansial tersebut :

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SWAPS PUSH-OUT: Wall Street firms that dominate the $615-trillion over-the-counter derivatives market would have to spin off dealing operations in some swaps, but could keep many swaps in-house, including derivatives to hedge their own risk.

Much OTC derivatives trading would be redirected through more accountable channels such as exchanges and clearinghouses. Many OTC contracts end-users could carry on as before.

VOLCKER RULE: A new rule would bar proprietary trading by banks for their own accounts unrelated to customers; limit the growth of the biggest banks; and curb banks' involvement in private equity and hedge funds, except for small investments allowed by a loophole added to the rule late in debate.

Some big banks' profits would be pinched by both the Volcker rule and the Lincoln swaps plan, with a few Wall Street giants potentially facing structural changes.

WALL ST 'DEATH PANEL': Aiming to prevent massive bailouts like AIG's and disastrous bankruptcies like Lehman Brothers', the bill calls for a new government "orderly liquidation" process for financial firms on the verge of collapse.

Authorities could seize and liquidate them, with costs covered by sales of assets and fees on other firms if needed.

CONSUMER WATCHDOG: Protection of financial consumers would be enhanced by increased government regulation.

The bill would set up a new bureau in the Federal Reserve to regulate mortgages and credit cards. The watchdog has sharp teeth, but couldn't bite car dealers, who won an exemption.

THE BIG PICTURE: A new council of federal regulators would try to monitor the entire financial forest, not just the trees. High-risk firms could be singled out for stricter policing.

BEHIND THE HEDGE: Private equity and hedge funds would have to register with regulators and open their books to scrutiny. Not so for venture capital funds, which would be exempt.

INSURANCE COPS: The first federal monitor for state-policed insurers would be formed. It's not federal regulation -- yet.

BANK CUSHIONS: Banks would have to set aside more capital to ride out tough times, but will get several years to comply.

FED SCRUTINY: The Fed's emergency lending during the crisis would be reviewed, but not its decisions on interest rates.

DEBIT CARDS: Fees charged on debit card transactions would be reduced -- a victory for retailers over the banks.

Terjemahannya kurang lebih : 

Transaksi SWAP : perusahaan2 yang listing di Wallstreet yang mendominasi transaksi derivatif OTC harus menggunakan transaksi SWAP internal perusahaan termasuk untuk transaksi SWAP untuk hedge risiko mereka sendiri.
Transaksi OTC akan diarahkan ke bursa atau rumah klearing. Transaksi OTC yang sudah dijalan masih tetap jalan sesuai perrjanjian.

Peraturan Volcker: Sebuah peraturan baru akan membatasi  transaksi  oleh bank-bank untuk rekening mereka sendiri  yang tidak terkait dengan pelanggan; membatasi pertumbuhan dari bank terbesar dan menghentikan keterlibatan bank-bank dalam Private Equity dan Hedge fund, kecuali untuk investasi kecil diizinkan oleh aturan tertentu.

Keuntungan Beberapa bank besar akan terjepit oleh kedua aturan Volcker dan Aturan Lincoln untuk swap, dengan adanya beberapa raksasa Wall Street berpotensi menghadapi perubahan struktural.

Panel Kematian Wall Street : Bertujuan untuk mencegah dana talangan besar seperti AIG dan bencana kebangkrutan seperti Lehman Brothers. Peraturan baru meminta Pemerintah  menentukan proses untuk likuidasi  perusahaan keuangan di ambang kehancuran.

Pemerintah  dapat mengambil alih perusahaan tersebut  dan melikuidasi , dengan biaya ditanggung oleh penjualan aset dan biaya di perusahaan lain jika diperlukan.

Perlindungan Konsumen : Perlindungan konsumen keuangan akan ditingkatkan dengan peraturan pemerintah.RUU itu akan memungkinan Pemerintah  mendirikan sebuah biro baru di Federal Reserve untuk mengatur hipotek dan kartu kredit. Badan pengawas memiliki otoritas yang kuat.

Gambaran Lebih Luas: Sebuah dewan baru dari regulator federal akan mencoba untuk memantau seluruh hutan keuangan, bukan hanya perusahaannya saja.. perusahaan berisiko tinggi dapat dikenai aturan yang lebih ketat.

Hedge Fund : private equity  dan hedge fund harus mendaftar dengan regulator dan membuka pembukuan  mereka untuk diawasi. kecuali dana modal ventura.

Perusahaan Asuransi : Monitor federal untuk asuransi yang polisnya diterbitkan  di negara bagian. Ini, sementara belum menjadi  peraturan federal.

Dana Darurat Bank: Bank harus menyisihkan lebih banyak modal untuk masa-masa sulit, dan diberikan waktu untuk comply untuk aturan ini.

Pinjaman Darudat Fed: pinjaman darurat The Fed selama krisis akan dikaji, namun tidak mengawasi kebijakan suku bunga.

Kartu Debit : Biaya yang dikenakan pada transaksi kartu debit akan berkurang - kemenangan untuk pengecer atas bank.


Semoga membantu 

Vix

Di beberapa artikel yang membahas pergerakan saham2 di wallstreet sering kita temui Vix atau Volatility Index yang diterbitkan oleh CBOE yang baru saja Go Public.

Berikut ini sedikit tentang Vix

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It is not backed by anything and positions held are merely a prediction of a future. A high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from this volatility by selling options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.

The VIX Index in 1993 was introduced in a paper by Professor Robert E. Whaley of Vanderbilt University^[1].

VIX atau Volatility Index adalah alat pengukuran untuk volatilitas dari saham-saham yang termasuk di option S&P 500 index. isinya adalah prediksi pergerakan S&P 500. semakin tinggi nilainya semakin volatile pasarnya. Biasanya dikenal sebagai indeks ketakutan karena mewakili dugaan pasar untuk 30 hari kedepan.

Semoga bisa membantu. Keep investing

Crude oil Benchmark

Minyak mentah mempunyai harga yang berubah-ubah tergantung dari beberapa hal seperti:

1. nilai tukar USD terhadad EURO

2. permintaan dan penawaran dari industri di seluruh dunia

3. persediaan di AS sebagai pengguna minyak terbesar dunia

4. produksi OPEC, suatu organisasi yang terdiri dari negara2 pengexport minyak

Di bawah ini adalah beberapa benchmark atau tolok ukur untuk minyak mentah dunia.

Crude oil benchmarks, also known as oil markers, were first introduced in the mid 1980s. There are three primary benchmarks, WTI, Brent Blend, and Dubai. Other well known blends include the Opec basket used by OPEC, Tapis Crude which is traded in Singapore, Bonny Light used in Nigeria and Mexico's Isthmus. The Energy Intelligence Group has published a handbook which identifies 161 different blends in total.[1]

Benchmarks are used because there are many different varieties and grades of crude oil.[2] Using benchmarks makes referencing types of oil easier for sellers and buyers.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

West Texas Intermediate is used primarily in the U.S. It is light (API gravity) and sweet (low-sulfur) thus making it ideal for producing products like low-sulfur gasoline and low-sulfur diesel. Brent is not as light or as sweet as WTI but it is still a high-grade crude. The OPEC basket is slightly heavier and more sour than Brent. As a result of these gravity and sulfur differences, WTI typically trades at a dollar or two premium to Brent and another dollar or two premium to the OPEC basket.[3]

Brent Blend

Brent Crude is used primarily in Europe and the OPEC market basket, used around the world. This benchmark is a mix of crude oil from 15 different oil fields in the North Sea.[1]

Dubai and Oman

Dubai Crude is also known as Fateh is produced in the Emirate of Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates.[4] Dubai's only refinery, at Jebel Ali, takes condensates as feedstocks, and therefore all of Dubai's crude production is exported. For many years it was the only freely traded oil in the Middle East, but gradually a spot market has developed in Omani crude as well.

For many years, most of the oil producers in the Middle East have taken the monthly spot price average of Dubai and Oman as the benchmark for sales to the Far East (WTI and Brent futures prices are used for exports to the Atlantic Basin). In July 2007, a potential new mechanism has arisen in the form of the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, which offers futures contracts in Omani crude. Whether the DME will be successful, and whether Omani futures prices will be adopted by producers and buyers as a benchmark, remains to be seen.

Contracts

Because of its excellent liquidity and price transparency, the contract is used as a principal international pricing benchmark.

Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity, and the NYMEX Division light sweet crude oil futures contract is the world's most liquid form for crude oil trading, as well as the world's largest-volume futures contract trading on a physical commodity. Additional risk management and trading opportunities are offered through options on the futures contract; calendar spread options; crack spread options on the pricing differential of heating oil futures and crude oil futures and gasoline futures and crude oil futures; and average price options.

The contract trades in units of 1,000 barrels, and the delivery point is Cushing, Oklahoma, which is also accessible to the international spot markets via pipelines. The contract provides for delivery of several grades of domestic and internationally traded foreign crudes, and serves the diverse needs of the physical market.

Untuk lebih detailnya :

WTI : 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is a type of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing and the underlyingcommodity of New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contracts.

This oil type is often referenced in North American news reports about oil prices, alongside North Sea Brent Crude. Other important oil markersinclude the Dubai Crude and the OPEC Reference Basket.

Historical price data for WTI can be found at a website maintained by Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy. It is listed as WTI, Cushing, Oklahoma [1].

Typical price difference per barrel is about $1 more than Brent, and $2 more than OPEC basket.

BRENT

Brent Crude is the biggest of the many major classifications of oil consisting of Brent Crude, Brent Sweet Light Crude, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Forties. Brent Crude is sourced from the North Sea. The Brent Crude oil marker is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum. It is used to price two thirds of the world's internationally traded crude oil supplies.

Typical price difference per barrel is between +/-3 USD/bbl compared to WTI and OPEC Basket. The different price spreads are based on physical variations in supply and demand (short term). The depletion of the North Sea oil fields is one explanation for the divergence in forward prices.Crude :

OPEC BASKET :

The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), also referred to as the OPEC Basket is a weighted average of prices for petroleum blends produced by OPEC countries. It is used as an importantbenchmark for crude oil prices

On June 15, 2005 the OPEC basket was changed to reflect the characteristics of the oil produced by OPEC members. The Reference Basket currently consists of a weighted average of the following blends of oil:

▪                Saharan Blend (from Algeria)

▪                Minas (from Indonesia)

▪                Iran Heavy (from Islamic Republic of Iran)

▪                Basra Light (from Iraq)

▪                Kuwait Export (from Kuwait)

▪                Es Sider (from Libya)

▪                Bonny Light (from Nigeria)

▪                Qatar Marine (from Qatar)

▪                Arab Light (from Saudi Arabia)

▪                Murban (from UAE)

▪                BCF 17 (from Venezuela)

Prior to June 15, 2005, the OPEC Basket consisted of the following:

▪                Arab Light (from Saudi Arabia)

▪                Bonny Light (from Nigeria)

▪                Fateh (from Dubai)

▪                Isthmus (from Mexico, a non-OPEC country)

▪                Minas (from Indonesia)

▪                Saharan Blend (from Algeria)

▪                Tia Juana Light (from Venezuela)

OPEC attempts to keep the price of the Opec Basket between upper and lower limits, by increasing and decreasing production. This makes the measure important for market analysts. The OPEC Basket, including a mix of light and heavy crudes, is heavier than both Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

DUBAI CRUDE:

Dubai Crude is a light sour crude oil extracted from Dubai. Dubai Crude is used as a price benchmark or oil marker because it is one of only a few Persian Gulf crude oils available immediately. The other two main oil markers are Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate.

Dubai Crude is generally used for pricing Persian Gulf crude oil exports to Asia. The Dubai benchmark is also known as Fateh is used in the United Arab Emirates.[1] Forward trade of Dubai Crude is limited to one or two months.

Dubai Crude is a light oil. It has a gravity of 31° API (specific gravity of 0.871) and a sulfur content of 2%/weight[2]

Source : Wikipedia